As 2025 came to a close, the Marin County housing market entered a more balanced phase after several years defined by limited inventory, rapid sales, and heavy competition. Instead of sharp swings, the market adjusted through increased supply, slightly longer marketing times, and stable pricing.
Heading into 2026, Marin continues to stand out for its proximity to San Francisco paired with a slower, more residential pace of life. For buyers, sellers, and homeowners planning their next move, the Marin County real estate market offers a clearer set of expectations than it has in years.
A Market Finding Its Rhythm: 2025 in Review
The Marin County real estate market in 2025 was defined by adjustment rather than disruption. Conditions became more transparent, decision-making slowed slightly, and outcomes became more closely tied to pricing accuracy and preparation.
Inventory Trends
Inventory increased throughout 2025 compared to the prior year. By midyear and into the fall, available listings were often 20 to 45 percent higher year over year, depending on the month. This increase reduced the sense of scarcity that had driven competition earlier in the decade.
The additional supply did not overwhelm the market. Instead, it allowed buyers to evaluate options more carefully and required sellers to compete more directly on price and presentation.
What this means: Increased inventory provided flexibility without creating oversupply, supporting a healthier balance between buyers and sellers.
Pricing Trends
Pricing throughout 2025 showed resilience with some variation by month and neighborhood. Certain periods experienced mild year-over-year declines, while others held steady or increased slightly. On average, sellers continued to achieve at or above list price, especially in areas such as Mill Valley, San Rafael, and Corte Madera.
Price adjustments that did occur were driven by affordability constraints and higher inventory rather than weakening interest. Buyers remained willing to pay for quality and location, but pricing accuracy became more important.
What this means: Marin County home values adjusted toward realistic market levels while maintaining long-term stability.
Pricing Accuracy and Competition
The list-to-sale price ratio further illustrates how competition evolved. Throughout 2025, Marin homes typically sold for between 100 and 102 percent of list price. While overbidding eased compared to earlier years, it remained common in prime neighborhoods.
Sellers who priced within 2 to 3 percent of recent comparable sales were most successful and often attracted multiple offers within the first two weeks.
What this means: Competition persists for well-priced homes, but outcomes depend on precision rather than momentum.
Marin County Housing Forecast for 2026
The outlook for 2026 points toward continued stability with selective growth.
Inventory and Supply
Inventory is expected to remain higher than historical lows but below levels that would indicate oversupply. Buyers should continue to benefit from variety, while desirable homes near transit corridors and strong school districts are likely to sell quickly.
Pricing Outlook
Home prices are projected to remain steady or rise modestly, generally in the 1 to 3 percent range across most of the county. Premium neighborhoods such as Tiburon, Kentfield, and Mill Valley may experience slightly stronger appreciation due to limited availability.
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates are expected to hover in the mid-6 percent range. While affordability remains a consideration, rate stability supports planning and continued movement for both buyers and sellers.
Buyer and Seller Behavior
Expect measured decision-making. Buyers will take time to evaluate options, and sellers will continue to see the best results when pricing and presentation align with current conditions.
What This Means for You
First-Time Buyers and Commuters
For those entering the market or relocating from San Francisco, 2026 offers more choice and less bidding pressure than recent years. Marin’s access to the city, paired with residential neighborhoods and open space, continues to attract professionals and young families.
Move-Up Buyers and Families
Expanded inventory in Novato, Corte Madera, and San Rafael creates opportunities for homeowners looking to upsize. Homes with flexible layouts and accessory dwelling units remain in strong demand.
Downsizers and Empty Nesters
Communities such as Ross, Kentfield, and Larkspur offer walkability, stable pricing, and strong amenities, making them attractive for downsizing while preserving value.
Investors
With steady rental demand, limited new construction, and consistent appreciation, Marin remains a strong long-term investment market. Smaller properties near transit hubs and town centers continue to perform well.
Marin County Submarkets to Watch
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Mill Valley: Consistent demand driven by location and lifestyle
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Novato: Relative affordability and strong sales volume
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Kentfield and Ross: Limited turnover and resilient values
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San Rafael: Diverse housing stock and steady buyer interest
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Tiburon and Belvedere: Ongoing demand for luxury and waterfront properties
Together, these areas reflect the diversity and stability of the Marin County housing market.
Expert Tips for Navigating Marin in 2026
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Price within 2 to 3 percent of comparable sales to attract early interest
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Invest in preparation, including staging and professional photography
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Secure financing early to compete effectively in tighter submarkets
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Analyze neighborhood-level data rather than countywide averages
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Leverage seasonal patterns, particularly spring and late summer
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Marin County home prices rise in 2026?
Most submarkets are expected to see modest appreciation, generally in the 1 to 3 percent range, with stronger performance in central and southern Marin.
Is Marin still competitive for buyers?
Yes, though competition is more measured. Buyers have more leverage than in recent years but should act promptly on well-priced homes.
What is driving demand in Marin County?
Lifestyle appeal, proximity to San Francisco, limited new construction, and continued in-migration from urban areas.
Which Marin neighborhoods offer the best value?
Novato, San Rafael, and parts of Fairfax continue to offer strong value and steady long-term growth.
How does Marin compare to Sonoma County?
Marin generally commands higher prices and faster sales due to its proximity to San Francisco, while Sonoma offers broader inventory and slightly more negotiation flexibility. Both markets are stable and strategy-driven heading into 2026.
Final Thoughts: Stability, Strategy, and Lifestyle
Marin County enters 2026 as a market defined by balance rather than volatility. Buyers benefit from greater transparency and choice. Sellers succeed by aligning with market realities. Outcomes depend more on preparation and pricing than speed.
With its combination of location, lifestyle, and long-term value, Marin remains one of Northern California’s most desirable real estate markets.
If you are planning to buy, sell, or invest in Marin County, now is the time to prepare your strategy. Contact our team for a personalized market analysis, private listings access, or guidance tailored to your 2026 goals.
