As Sonoma County moves into 2026, the housing market has settled into a very different rhythm than the one that defined the post-pandemic years. Inventory has expanded, urgency has cooled, and both buyers and sellers are operating with clearer expectations. Rather than volatility, the market today reflects adjustment and stabilization.
This overview looks at how the Sonoma County housing market evolved through 2024 and 2025 and what the data suggests for buyers, sellers, and homeowners heading into the first half of 2026.
Sonoma County Real Estate Trends Leading Into 2026
The most significant shift over the past 18 months has been supply. Active listings increased steadily beginning in mid-2024, rising from roughly 700 homes to more than 1,000 listings by spring 2025 before easing slightly toward year-end.
Instead of driving prices down, the market absorbed this additional inventory by slowing its pace. Buyers gained more choice and time to evaluate options, while sellers faced more competition. The adjustment showed up not through price disruption, but through longer days on market and more disciplined pricing.
Inventory and Market Pace Move Toward Balance
As inventory increased, days on market followed. Homes took longer to sell through 2024 and 2025, but transaction activity remained steady. This pattern reflects a balanced market, where neither buyers nor sellers hold outsized leverage.
By the end of 2025, inventory moderated slightly, and buyer engagement remained consistent heading into 2026.
What this means: Sonoma County has transitioned away from extreme conditions into a market that supports steady activity without sharp swings.
Pricing Discipline Replaced Overbidding
Pricing behavior shifted meaningfully during this period. In mid-2024 and early 2025, many homes sold at or above asking price, with list-to-sale ratios often exceeding 100 percent. As inventory grew, that ratio compressed.
By mid-2025, the list-to-sale price ratio settled near 99 percent and stayed there through year-end. Homes priced in line with recent comparable sales continued to sell close to asking, while overpricing led to longer market times and price reductions.
What this means: Pricing accuracy matters more than timing. The market still rewards realistic expectations.
Median Home Prices: Stability, Not Decline
Median home prices in Sonoma County stayed relatively steady through the adjustment. From mid-2024 through mid-2025, prices generally ranged between $820,000 and $870,000. By late 2025, prices eased toward the $800,000 range, finishing the year around $799,000.
This was not a sharp correction. Prices plateaued rather than dropped, indicating that the market absorbed higher inventory without eroding long-term equity.
What this means: Sonoma County home values have stabilized at levels that support continued participation from buyers while preserving homeowner equity.
Sonoma County Housing Forecast 2026
Looking ahead, the data points to continued stability rather than major movement. Inventory is expected to remain near a three-month supply, higher than the ultra-tight conditions of 2021 through 2023 but not high enough to pressure prices downward.
Median home prices are likely to hold in the mid-to-high $800,000 range, with variation by submarket. Mortgage rates are expected to remain in the mid-6 percent range, which has become a normalized planning assumption for most buyers.
Rather than waiting for dramatic shifts, buyers and sellers are focusing on negotiation, preparation, and fit.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in 2026
Buyers can expect more choice and more room to negotiate than in recent years, especially on homes needing updates or priced aggressively. Inspections and repair discussions are common again.
Sellers who price accurately and prepare their homes continue to see strong outcomes. Quality and realism are rewarded, while overpricing is more visible.
Investors benefit from predictable pricing and steady rental demand, particularly in mid-tier neighborhoods. Homeowners considering a move have more flexibility around timing and strategy than during peak volatility.
Sonoma County Submarkets to Watch
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Petaluma: Consistent demand driven by schools, walkability, and community amenities
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Santa Rosa: Broad inventory with steady buyer interest across price points
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Sebastopol: Limited turnover and lifestyle appeal support price stability
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Healdsburg: Luxury demand remains strong, particularly from Bay Area buyers
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Sonoma Valley: Popular with downsizers and remote professionals
Will Sonoma County home prices go up or down in 2026?
Most signs point to price stability. Median home prices are expected to hold steady overall, with modest gains possible in high-demand neighborhoods. A broad decline is unlikely without a major economic shift.
Is 2026 a good time to sell a home in Sonoma County?
Yes, if your home is priced correctly and well prepared. While sales are slower than in 2022 or early 2023, well-positioned homes are still selling close to list price. Pricing and presentation matter more than timing.
How competitive will the market be for buyers?
Competition is moderate. Buyers have more room to negotiate on price, repairs, and terms, especially on homes that have been on the market longer. Desirable, well-priced homes can still attract multiple offers.
Which Sonoma County neighborhoods offer the best value right now?
Petaluma, Windsor, and Sebastopol continue to offer strong long-term value due to consistent demand and limited new construction. Conditions can vary by neighborhood, so local analysis matters.
What is the best time to buy or sell in 2026?
Spring and early summer typically bring the most activity and inventory. That said, motivated buyers and well-prepared listings perform well year-round in a balanced market.
Is 2026 a good year for first-time homebuyers in Sonoma County?
For many first-time buyers, yes. Higher inventory levels mean more options and time to decide, and negotiation on price or repairs has returned in many cases. Buyers who are pre-approved and focused on specific neighborhoods are in a strong position.
Final Takeaway: Strategy Over Speculation
The Sonoma County real estate market entering 2026 is not defined by speed or scarcity. It is defined by preparation, pricing accuracy, and informed decision-making.
Buyers benefit from expanded choice. Sellers succeed by aligning with market realities. And outcomes increasingly depend on local nuance rather than headlines.
If you have questions about how these trends apply to your neighborhood or your plans, even if you are not planning to buy or sell right now, we are always happy to talk it through.
You can also read our full Marin County Housing Forecast 2026 for a broader North Bay perspective, or contact our Sonoma County real estate team for a personalized market analysis.
